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Perubahan Iklim Bakal Picu Risiko Konflik Bersenjata Masa Datang

Kenaikan suhu-suhu global planet Bumi (global warming) dan perubahan iklim (climate change) berisiko meningkatkan konflik bersenjata (armed-conflicts) masa-masa datang di berbagai zona dunia. Begitu hasil riset dan kajian Katharine J. Mach dan koleganya (2019) dari Stanford University di Amerika Serikat , yang dirilis oleh jurnal Nature 12 Juni 2019 (Katharine J. Mach, et al, 2019).

“Appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritizing responses, which could include aid and cooperation,” ungkap Katharine J. Mach, direktur The  Stanford Environment Assessment Facility dan lead-author studi ilmiah itu (Stanford University, 12/6/2019).

Studi ilmiah itu merupakan kajian para ahli multidisiplin tentang pola hubungan antara perubahan iklim dan pemanasan global terhadap konflik bersenjata. Tim ahli multidisiplin itu menyepakati bahwa iklim telah mempengaruhi konflik bersenjata terorganisir di dalam negara-negara. Namun, faktor lain, seperti rapuhnya pembangunan sosial-ekonomi dan kinerja negara, dinilai secara substansial lebih berpengaruh terhadap konflik bersenjata; sehingga pola hubungan antara perubahan iklim terhadap konflik bersenjata, seakan masih tidak pasti; namun, lonjakan perubahan iklim bakal meningkatkan risiko-risiko konflik bersenjata masa datang (Katharine J. Mach, et al, 2019).

“Knowing whether environmental or climatic changes are important for explaining conflict has implications for what we can do to reduce the likelihood of future conflict, as well as for how to make well-informed decisions about how aggressively we should mitigate future climate change,” papar Marshall Burke, asisten profesor bidang sains sistem Bumi dan co-author studi ilmiah itu (Stanford University, 12/6/2019).

Studi ilmiah itu merupakan kajian kolaborasi 14 ilmuwan atau ahli berbagai bidang asal sejumlah perguruan tinggi dan lembaga riset pada 5 negara yatu (1) Katharine J. Mach asal Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Amerika Serikat); Mach adalah ilmuwan riset senior bidang sains sistem Bumi; (2) Caroline M. Kraan asal Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Amerika Serikat); Caroline Kraan adalah profesional riset pada The Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment dan Stanford Environment Assessment Facility.

(3) W. Neil Adger asal Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter (Inggris); (4) Halvard Buhaug asal Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo (Norwegia) dan Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norwegia).

(5) Marshall Burke asal Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Amerika Serikat) dan National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA (Amerika Serikat); (6) James D. Fearon asal Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Amerika Serikat); (7) Christopher B. Field asal Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Amerika Serikat); (8) Cullen S. Hendrix asal Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO (Amerika Serikat) dan Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC (Amerika Serikat).

(9) Jean-Francois Maystadt asal Institute of Development Policy (IOB), University of Antwerp, Antwerp (Belgia) dan Department of Economics, Lancaster University, Lancaster (Inggris); (10) John O’Loughlin asal Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO (Inggris); (11) Philip Roessler asal Department of Government, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA (Amerika Serikat); (12) Jürgen Scheffran asal Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg (Jerman); (13) Kenneth A. Schultz asal Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (Amerika Serikat); (14) Nina von Uexkull asal Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo (Norwegia) dan Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala (Swedia).

Hasil riset dan kajian lintas-disiplin para ahli itu memperkirakan bahwa iklim telah memengaruhi antara 3% - 20% risiko konflik bersenjata selama abad terakhir dan pengaruhnya kemungkinan meningkat secara dramatis masa-masa datang (Katharine J. Mach, et al, 2019).

“Historically, levels of armed conflict over time have been heavily influenced by shocks to, and changes in, international relations among states and in their domestic political systems. It is quite likely that over this century, unprecedented climate change is going to have significant impacts on both, but it is extremely hard to anticipate whether the political changes related to climate change will have big effects on armed conflict in turn. So I think putting nontrivial weight on significant climate effects on conflict is reasonable,” papar said James Fearon, profesor ilmu politik dan co-author studi ilmiah ini (Stanford University, 12/6/2019).

Dengan skenario kenaikan pemanasan global 4 derajat Celcius (kira-kira bakal kita alami, jika masyarakat tidak mengurangi emisi gas pemicu panas), pengaruh iklim terhadap konflik bakal meningkat lebih dari lima kali-lipat, melompat ke peluang 26% dari peningkatan substansial risiko konflik. Bahkan dalam skenario kenaikan pemanasan global 2 derajat Celcius melebihi level pra-industrial –target The Paris Climate Ageement (2016)--, pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap konflik bakal meningkat lebih dari dua kali-lipat menjadi 13% (Katharine J. Mach, et al, 2019). The Paris Climate Ageement (2016) dari kerangka United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sudah diratifikasi oleh 15 Negara hingga Juni 2019.

“Understanding the multifaceted ways that climate may interact with known drivers of conflict is really critical for putting investments in the right place,” papar Katharine J. Mach (Stanford University, 12/6/2019).

Oleh: Servas Pandur